Ottawa Investment Advisor John Bruce

October 2019 Update

October 9, 2019

I hope you had a great summer and have the opportunity to enjoy some pleasant fall weather as we head into the final few months of the year. I am writing to bring you up to date on some key market developments over the past three months and to provide some context for how your investment portfolio may have performed during that time.

Many of the main themes that have affected global asset markets in 2019 – including U.S.-China trade tensions, political uncertainty due to the Brexit negotiations, and slowing economic activity – continued in the third quarter, resulting in somewhat choppy market performance. Nevertheless, market participants ultimately found reasons for optimism in moderate inflation, generally positive corporate earnings reports and supportive business conditions. As a result, many global bond and equity markets posted gains for the quarter.

After reaching a new high in the prior quarter, the U.S. equity market fell sharply near the end of July and remained volatile over the next several weeks before climbing higher again. The S&P 500 Index, an index of the 500 largest U.S. publicly traded companies, finished the period up 3.0% and with a gain of 16.9% for the year-to-date in Canadian dollar terms. The U.S. market rally has been broad-based in 2019, with particularly strong results for companies in the information technology, utilities and real estate sectors.

In Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite Index also weakened in late July, but bounced back to reach a record high late in the quarter, with a rally that was fuelled by companies in the financials and consumer staples sectors. The Canadian benchmark gained nearly 2.5% for the quarter, and was one of the best-performing equity markets globally with a year-to-date gain of 19.1%.

Performance for the MSCI EAFE Index, which captures performance for large and mid-cap companies in 21 developed markets across Europe and Asia, was more muted. The index rose slightly by 0.3% in Canadian dollars for the third quarter, bringing its year-to-date gain to 9.9%.

With global growth slowing, the expectation of rate cuts by leading central banks led government bond yields lower and prices higher through much of the three-month period. The U.S. Federal Reserve cut its policy rate twice in the third quarter – once in July and again in September – citing risks including trade tensions and slowing growth overseas. The European Central Bank responded to slower economic growth by taking its key lending rate into negative territory and re-starting its bond purchase program to ease credit conditions. The Bank of Canada, however, bucked the trend, pointing to a strong economy for maintaining its overnight lending rate at 1.75%. The FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index, a broad measure of Canadian government and corporate bonds, returned 1.2% for the quarter and 7.8% for the year-to-date.

Looking ahead, global growth is expected to continue, albeit at a slower pace than we have seen recently, while the risks stemming from trade disputes and political upheaval could continue to affect global economies and markets. At these times, it’s worth bearing in mind that markets rarely move forward without temporary corrections or bouts of volatility. I continue to believe that a diversified portfolio that features active management and is suited to your time horizon and tolerance for risk remains the best strategy for helping you achieve your financial goals. Should you have any questions regarding your portfolio, please do not hesitate to contact my office.

Sincerely,


John S. Bruce
Senior Investment Advisor
Private Client Division
Direct Line- 613-491-3344
Fax- 613-491-2292
Toll Free- 866-860-4190
Email- jbruce@mackieresearch.com 
www.creatingwealth.ca | www.mackieresearch.com

It Has Been Awhile, But I See a Silver (and Gold) Lining

September 17, 2019

Gold prices have been going sideways since it cooled off in 2014. It had peaked in the late summer of 2011 and surged to an all time high. What caused gold and silver to come out of hibernation?

First, interest rates have declined to all-time lows and rates are even negative in Europe. The Fed decided to stop raising interest rates in 2019 and recently reversed its policy by cutting rates a quarter point.

The broad-based money supply (M3) is now growing at 9%, suggesting easy money is back. Since bonds pay very little interest, gold looks more attractive.

Second, the Trump trade war has destabilized the global economy and created an economic crisis. Gold thrives on uncertainty and instability.

Third, gold and silver look cheap compared with stocks and real estate, which have climbed to near-record levels.

I am not a Gold Bug but I have to recognize that my technical charts on Gold look to higher prices at the same time that Oil and Gas are headed lower. No one likes to be wrong and no one likes to lose money when they are. Its what you do when you realize that your plan is not succeeding that guides your results.

The trend in Oil and Gas is lower and the trend in precious metals is higher. With global economies being disrupted by the escalating US/ China trade dispute, these two trends are becoming more pronounced. The trend is your friend ‘till it ends.

Here is how we can capture the trend. For smaller accounts the most effective thing to do is to liquidate at least half of  any energy Mutual funds and switch over to a Precious Metals fund. For medium to larger accounts, reduce at least half of the Oil and Gas companies and we pick up Precious metals Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and a few small cap juniors. If this move accelerates, the large caps go up the ETFs give you diversification as do the Mutual Funds and the juniors give you some higher octane potential.

We have many things accelerating the desire for gold globally. Chinese demand for gold is increasing as shown by the Peoples’s Bank of China is still buying (1) India’s ban on the 500 and 1,000 Rupee Notes in 2016 created havoc in India and their demand for gold accelerated (2) Inflation is rising in the US. It reached a high of 2.9% in June and July Inflation forecasters are calling for 2.7% by year end 2019

All of this is supportive of adding gold to your portfolios. I would suggest 5 to 7% to start and then see if it accelerates. If and when Oil and Gas prices should move up we may then consider reallocating dollars back into it. For now, oil is a down and looks to be going lower.

 

Please call me direct at 613-491-3344 or toll free at 1-866-860-4190 to discus further.

 

Best Regards,

 

John S. Bruce

Investment Advisor

CI Quarterly Client Letter 2019 Q2

September 17, 2019

I hope this letter finds you well and enjoying some long-awaited summer weather. I am writing to provide details on how investment markets have performed in recent months and some perspective on some of the broad trends affecting your portfolio.

Coming off a very strong start to the year in the first quarter, global capital markets continued to chart a generally positive course through the second quarter of 2019. Although ongoing trade disputes unsettled investors for much of the period, equity markets around the globe moved higher, while bond prices also climbed as central banks maintained an easy monetary policy stance.

In Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite Index benefited from strength in the materials and information technology sectors to generate a return of 2.6% for the quarter, bringing the equity benchmark’s overall gain to 16.2% for the year-to-date. In the U.S., the S&P 500 Index reached new all-time highs early in the quarter and finished the three-month period 2.2% higher in Canadian dollar terms. Most overseas equity markets also registered modest gains, and the MSCI World Index added about 1.9% for the quarter, also in Canadian dollars.

The equity market rally was supported, in part, by continued low interest rates in North America and abroad. The U.S. Federal Reserve kept its target interest rate unchanged and indicated the possibility of a rate cut in the second half of 2019, prompting the U.S. 10-year government bond yield to decline through the period. As expected, the Bank of Canada also maintained its overnight lending rate of 1.75%, noting that economic growth had been slower than initially anticipated at the beginning of the year. This was positive for bond prices and the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index, a broad measure of Canadian government and corporate bonds, returned 2.5% for the second quarter.

Many of the conditions that have supported market growth in recent years such as low interest rates, measured economic growth and expanding corporate earnings are expected to continue in the near term. Nevertheless, the current recovery has not been without temporary corrections or bouts of volatility. I continue to believe that a professionally managed, diversified portfolio that is suited to your time horizon and tolerance for risk remains the best strategy for managing risk and helping you achieve your financial goals.

If you have any questions about your portfolio results or your overall financial plan, please do not hesitate to contact my office. In the meantime, I hope you and your family have a safe and happy summer.

Sincerely,

John S. Bruce- Investment Advisor

613-491-3344 0r Toll Free 866-860-4190

Protecting Your Portfolio

June 11, 2019

Signs of a possible slowing global economy and the potential impact that it could have, has many of my clients concerned about the next recession. The U.S. economy hasn’t been in a recession since the last one ended in 2009. While most economists don’t see that happening in the near future, it will happen sooner or later. Now might be the time for us to see how resilient your portfolio would be to a U.S. recession and the steps you should take.

Here is what we can do to be more defensive.

  1. Increase our cash holdings – This does not mean to sell out and liquidate your holdings. What I am saying is that with so many headwinds capable of pressuring stock prices down over the near term, let’s keep some cash available to go shopping for our favorite companies when they go on sale.
  2. High-Quality Dividend Stocks – Look to add high quality companies that have succeeded in the past and should continue to do so in the future. These companies generally have a high return on equity, pay high dividends and are not subject to market cycles. The dividend income streams may offset some of the share price decline that is inevitable and when the market resumes its upward trajectory, can make a big difference in your rate of return coming out of a recession. I have 2 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that I have scouted out specifically for this purpose. Please call me to discuss them and their suitability for your portfolio.
  3. Preferred Stocks – These stocks are a hybrid having both equity and debt components. They are interest rate sensitive so that means if rates go up their prices go down and vice versa. However, they pay out a specific percentage and the dividend gets better tax treatment with the dividend tax credit then what you would get with a bond or GIC that pays the same rate. These investments are not always as liquid as common stock, and should be considered as long term holds for the steady income they pay. I prefer stocks issued by banks, life insurance companies and utilities.
  4. Emerging Markets – In a recession, long-term holdings should still be focused for growth, with some exposure outside the U.S. For this I prefer the emerging markets for the younger demographics and faster gross domestic product growth rates, which likely won’t change through recessions. Compared with long-term U.S. market valuations, emerging markets remain cheap. Lower valuation means higher return expectations. The price-earnings ratio for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM), which captures large and mid-cap representations across 24 emerging market countries, was 11.58 as of May 30th. That is good value.
  5. Commodities -Commodities are often uncorrelated to stocks, and a small allocation to a diversified commodity ETF, such as Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC) can add portfolio diversification. Rising prices may cause recessions, and this inflationary effect can support real assets like commodities while hurting stocks. Commodities may also fall, but normally not as much as stocks. Your commodities allocation shouldn’t be more than about 5 percent of the total portfolio.

In Conclusion

We have been taking profits on some of our overweight positions, so you may have noticed the cash and cash equivalent holdings have been on the rise. This is all part of preparing for the next cycle in the economy. I do not see a recession coming anytime soon but the increasing hostilities in the US – China trade negotiations could be the kind of event that disrupts the economy.

Please call me to discuss how we will prepare you to manage your investments in turbulent economic cycles.

John S. Bruce

Senior Investment Advisor
Private Client Division
Direct Line- 613-491-3344
Fax- 613-491-2292
Toll Free- 866-860-4190
Email- jbruce@mackieresearch.com

https://www.creatingwealth.ca

http://www.mackieresearch.com

Assistant – Brian Donegan
Direct Line – 416-860-7787
Toll Free – 1-844-860-7787
Fax – 416-860-7671
Email – bdonegan@mackieresearch.com

First Quarter 2019  

April 12, 2019

Global capital markets reversed course after a notably difficult end to 2018, rebounding strongly to post mainly positive results for the first quarter of 2019. Equity markets appeared to be lifted by the prospect of easier monetary policy, while bond markets benefited from economic data showing slowing global growth.

The MSCI World Index, which reflects equity market results for 23 developed market economies, climbed 10.3% in Canadian dollar terms, with broad-based gains across markets in North America, Europe and Asia. In the U.S., the S&P 500 Index finished the quarter with a gain of 11.3% (also in Canadian currency), led by strong results for the information technology, energy and industrials sectors. Emerging markets equities also made gains during the quarter.

The Canadian benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index posted a robust quarterly gain of 13.3%. Although most sectors added value, Canada’s resource-heavy market was particularly buoyed by higher oil prices, while the industrials, information technology and health care sectors also performed well.

The equity rebound came despite economic data indicating growing slack in the global economy, and central banks responded by striking a more dovish tone in the first quarter. After moving to raise interest rates several times in 2018, the U.S. Federal Reserve left rates unchanged and put further increases for 2019 on hold. Yields for 10-year U.S. Treasury Bonds moved lower through the period as bond prices rose. The Bank of Canada also left rates unchanged, and 10-year Canadian government bond yields declined as investors discounted the probability of further rate cuts in the near term.  The FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index, a broad measure of Canadian government and corporate bonds, returned 3.9% for the quarter.

Since the bull market in North American equities began more than 10 years ago, investors have drawn confidence from the gradual expansion of the global economy, particularly in the U.S. where corporate earnings have been healthy and employment, housing and consumer spending data have been strong. However, late in the economic cycle, corporate earnings are slowing, along with global economic growth. While interest rates remain low and help to support business investment and equity prices in the near term, the market volatility we have seen over the past few quarters may become a more common occurrence as the cycle matures. The fourth quarter’s steep decline and the dramatic reversal in the first quarter of this year is a timely reminder of how quickly markets can turn, and underscores the importance of staying invested for the longer term.

Given this backdrop, I continue to believe investors are best served by a diversified approach to investing – one that provides exposure to a broad range of actively managed investments from equities to bonds, depending on your personal objectives.

In closing, I would like to thank you for your business. If you have any questions or concerns about your account, please do not hesitate to contact my office.

Sincerely,

John S. Bruce
Senior Investment Advisor
Private Client Division
Direct Line- 613-491-3344
Fax- 613-491-2292
Toll Free- 866-860-4190
https://www.creatingwealth.ca

http://www.mackieresearch.com

Assistant- Brian Donegan
Direct Line- 416-860-7787
Fax- 416-860-6841
Email- bdonegan@mackieresearch.com

Next Page »

Copyright © 2019 · Ottawa Investment Advisor John Bruce · All rights reserved · Mackie Research